Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd768…cfa5
crypto · 1261 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$104 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$104 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses809 / 451
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1260 / 1261
History coverage105d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1260 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$49
14 days−$185
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 62¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$82
sports 4% −$26
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 51% -16.7%
≤30d 1065 -9.3% -17.9% 63% 52% -15.5%
≤90d 1250 -5.2% -14.3% 64% 55% -12.8%
all 1260 -4.7% -13.8% 64% 55% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 55% -12.5%
10% -22.0% 42% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 28% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 17% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.36 (match) · 2479 history records