Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd762…1e56 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,362 (-66%) realized −$25,138 · open −$224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 33L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$797
14 days−$764
30 days−$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15,822
sports 44% −$9,952
tech 6% −$1,530
politics 2% −$699
crypto 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-85.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -92.5%
≤90d 19 -90.0% -91.0% 5% 5% -98.0%
all 37 -84.2% -85.7% 11% 8% -81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.7% 8% -81.6%
10% -87.0% 8% -83.4%
15% -88.3% 5% -85.0%
20% -89.4% 5% -86.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$739) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -78% → late -90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$603 vs −$914 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$836
Realized−$25,138
Unrealized−$224
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage724d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $214 +$64 (+43%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 9¢ 8¢ $180 $160 −$20 (-11%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $365 $152 −$213 (-58%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 3¢ 2¢ $84 $63 −$21 (-25%)
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) Sweden 1¢ 1¢ $90 $60 −$30 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $615 −$600 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$33 +90%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $410 −$410 -100%
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $420 −$416 -99%
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $210 −$207 -99%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $600 −$591 -98%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $122 −$122 -100%
Over $30M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $40M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $100M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $3,051 −$3,051 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $2,937 −$2,937 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $235 −$235 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $239 −$239 -100%
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $2,269 −$2,269 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $2,720 −$2,720 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jan 30 $519 −$519 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $2,998 −$2,998 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 20 $3,009 −$3,009 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $6,067 −$6,067 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $3,765 +$2,302 +61%
Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO? Oct 18 $2,212 −$235 -11%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $499 −$499 -100%
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer sp Nov 09 $1,574 −$1,574 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 08 $116 +$34 +29%
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2 Oct 27 $739 +$44 +6%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Oct 13 $699 −$699 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $194 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 9¢ $92 1h
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) BUY Sweden 1¢ $2 1h
Spread: Sweden (-3.5) BUY Sweden 1¢ $88 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 3¢ $84 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 3¢ $0 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 9¢ $92 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $510 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 23¢ $512 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 28d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $309 28d
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 84d
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 84d
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 26¢ $120 84d
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 84d
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 36¢ $210 84d
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 47¢ $600 84d
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 63¢ $380 84d
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.85 · official $836.85 (match) · 158 history records