Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd761…56e3 sports 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,577 (+8%) realized +$11,260 · open −$683
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%97W / 125L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1,708est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$625
7 days−$797
14 days−$3,738
30 days+$7,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$652
crypto 4% +$9,343
other 3% +$192
tech 0% −$100
world 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 44% -10.7%
≤30d 113 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 48% -1.4%
≤90d 113 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 48% -1.4%
all 222 -7.0% -15.9% 44% 41% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 41% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 37% -10.1%
15% -31.3% 31% -18.8%
20% -38.0% 26% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$627) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$486 vs −$301 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized+$11,260
Unrealized−$683
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses97 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,708
Open positions3
Markets (closed)222 / 225
History coverage151d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $117 $287 +$171 (+146%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 33¢ $994 $138 −$857 (-86%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $3,660 +$836 +23%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $292 +$147 +50%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $258 −$254 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$49 +396%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $2,574 +$427 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $513 −$507 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $680 −$680 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $149 −$145 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,872 −$93 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,092 +$354 +32%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $276 +$379 +137%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Gatorian (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $125 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $2,969 +$735 +25%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $1,155 +$407 +35%
Counter-Strike: Minkens finest vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $133 +$79 +60%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,022 −$1,005 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $495 −$486 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $356 +$261 +73%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $511 +$240 +47%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $296 +$38 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,865 +$1,165 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 −$68 -97%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $838 −$645 -77%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Minkens finest (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $1,493 +$291 +20%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $2,187 +$541 +25%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $373 −$369 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $205 −$202 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,076 −$1,063 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $933 +$129 +14%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $474 +$319 +67%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $49 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,473 −$592 -40%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $554 −$553 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $102 −$99 -97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $1,462 +$1,538 +105%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 09 $635 −$143 -23%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5,687 +$250 +4%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $627 +$71 +11%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $353 +$33 +9%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $277 +$31 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $7,423 +$675 +9%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5) Jun 08 $3,807 +$2,504 +66%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $92 −$87 -94%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $214 −$111 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 11¢ $13 39m
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 11¢ $7 40m
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 19¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 19¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 19¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 17¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 17¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Alpha Gaming 17¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 16¢ $149 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 18¢ $180 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 31¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 31¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $131 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 50¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 50¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 49¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 50¢ $106 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 61¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $452 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $170 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $6 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $348 21h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $637 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.61 · official $482.47 · 1636 history records