Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd761…75ad crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-3%) realized −$46 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%57W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$217
14 days−$217
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$128
politics 10% −$28
other 5% −$11
world 5% −$56
sports 4% −$52
tech 2% −$3
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% +$10
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -48.7% -53.6% 19% 17% -35.7%
≤30d 60 -45.4% -50.6% 20% 18% -34.5%
≤90d 154 -12.5% -20.8% 37% 35% -21.2%
all 154 -12.5% -20.8% 37% 35% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -21.2%
10% -28.4% 32% -28.8%
15% -35.3% 27% -35.7%
20% -41.7% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses57 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions41
Markets (closed)154 / 195
History coverage56d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 43¢ 66¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+53%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 73¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? No 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 51¢ 82¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$13 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$40 +175%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$8 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$24 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Pope" or "Christian" during WHCA Dinner events? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -92%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$48 +413%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.12 · official $301.70 (match) · 888 history records