Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D7 0xd75d…4acc sports 77 markets active 5d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%46W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$540
crypto 32% −$464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 22 +75.3% +58.6% 59% 41% +36.0%
all 77 +16.8% +5.6% 60% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 45% -10.7%
10% -4.5% 35% -19.3%
15% -13.7% 29% -27.1%
20% -22.2% 25% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$81 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses46 / 31
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage121d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Kichenok/Ninomiya May 31 $22 −$22 -97%
Valorant: ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers May 14 $31 −$31 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $85 +$6 +8%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chinese Taipei vs Japan May 10 $48 +$1,127 +2330%
San Luis Potosi: Andrew Fenty vs Luka Pavlovic Apr 01 $90 +$8 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 31 $80 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 31 $73 +$6 +8%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $61 +$12 +20%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Mar 30 $38 +$24 +64%
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten (BO5) - VCL Latin America Sou Mar 29 $77 −$77 -100%
AHL: Calgary Wranglers vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds Mar 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Foxtrot Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana: North Amer Mar 25 $33 +$5 +16%
Honor of Kings: Xianyou Gaming vs JLY (BO5) - KPL Growth League Group Mar 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $84 −$13 -15%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs GAMEHARMONY (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group Mar 23 $73 +$6 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Stars Mar 23 $214 −$214 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: TNC Pro Team vs AP.Bren (BO3) - MPL Philippi Mar 22 $87 +$194 +223%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $67 +$36 +54%
Bruins vs. Red Wings Mar 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se Mar 21 $101 +$38 +37%
Counter-Strike: NuTorious vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No Mar 21 $82 +$11 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 20 $231 −$231 -100%
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs LiXO eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Mar 20 $257 +$16 +6%
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeas Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Essence vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Seri Mar 19 $46 +$16 +33%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 19 $222 +$14 +6%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South Ame Mar 19 $89 +$218 +245%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Any Questions Gaming (BO3) - China E Mar 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $191 +$51 +27%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Mar 13 $84 +$88 +104%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $68 +$17 +25%
Nets vs. Hawks Mar 13 $65 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoffs Mar 13 $51 +$13 +25%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group S Mar 10 $167 +$14 +9%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 10 $67 +$36 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $106 +$39 +37%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Mar 09 $69 +$63 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Series Mar 09 $64 +$10 +16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $77 +$23 +30%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Predators vs. Sabres Mar 08 $129 +$7 +5%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $18 +$27 +156%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 07 $70 +$55 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Malawi 7¢ $11 4d
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Kichenok/Ninomiya BUY Kichenok/Ninomiya 11¢ $22 18d
Valorant: ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers BUY ALTERNATE aTTaX Ruby 10¢ $31 35d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 93¢ $85 38d
WTT - Men's Singles: Chinese Taipei vs Japan BUY Japan 4¢ $48 41d
San Luis Potosi: Andrew Fenty vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Luka Pavlovic 92¢ $90 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $80 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $73 79d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY M80 83¢ $61 80d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY STATE 61¢ $38 80d
Valorant: ShindeN vs Melser Kindergarten (BO5) - VCL Latin America Sou BUY ShindeN 66¢ $77 81d
AHL: Calgary Wranglers vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds BUY Calgary Wranglers 59¢ $38 84d
Honor of Kings: Xianyou Gaming vs JLY (BO5) - KPL Growth League Group BUY JLY 44¢ $72 86d
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Foxtrot Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana: North Amer BUY BOSS 86¢ $33 86d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B BUY OG 59¢ $84 87d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs GAMEHARMONY (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group BUY FOKUS 93¢ $73 87d
Golden Knights vs. Stars BUY Stars 54¢ $214 87d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: TNC Pro Team vs AP.Bren (BO3) - MPL Philippi BUY AP.Bren 31¢ $87 88d
Bruins vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $72 88d
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca BUY Luke Riley 65¢ $67 89d
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se BUY JD Gaming 73¢ $101 89d
Counter-Strike: NuTorious vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League No BUY Zomblers 88¢ $82 89d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs BUY BIG 41¢ $231 90d
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs LiXO eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Astini+5 94¢ $257 90d
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeas BUY Team Essence 62¢ $5 90d
Dota 2: Team Essence vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Seri BUY InterActive Philippines 75¢ $46 91d
Devils vs. Rangers BUY Devils 94¢ $222 91d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Back to Back 29¢ $0 92d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Back to Back 29¢ $12 92d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South Ame BUY Back to Back 29¢ $77 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records