Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd75b…b43d weather 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%103W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$11
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 48 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 93 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 109 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×55.05 per $1 lost it wins $55.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses103 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage124d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $197 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? Jun 22 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $296 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $304 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 07 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 6 Jun 07 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 5? Jun 06 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $322 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $332 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $247 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27? May 28 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May May 25 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $110 39m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $141 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $336 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $338 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $336 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $335 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $336 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $336 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $336 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $335 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $334 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $334 12d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $271 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $159 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $150 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $296 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $304 17d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.91 · official $343.91 (match) · 227 history records