Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D7 0xd75a…fdec world 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,458 (+14%) realized +$7,568 · open +$1,890
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 69L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$941
7 days+$12,751
14 days+$12,839
30 days+$9,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$13,580
other 23% −$1,730
politics 12% −$3,995
sports 3% +$257
tech 2% +$595
finance 1% −$490
culture 1% −$142
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +153.6% +129.5% 62% 62% +134.3%
≤30d 44 +46.4% +32.4% 52% 50% +47.9%
≤90d 96 +32.8% +20.1% 49% 45% +19.0%
all 128 +15.7% +4.6% 46% 43% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 43% +3.9%
10% -5.4% 38% -6.0%
15% -14.5% 33% -15.1%
20% -22.9% 28% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$204 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$6,973
Realized+$7,568
Unrealized+$1,890
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions15
Markets (closed)128 / 143
History coverage128d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 88¢ $2,259 $2,902 +$643 (+28%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $1,187 $2,295 +$1,108 (+93%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $382 $676 +$294 (+77%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $534 $528 −$6 (-1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $122 $103 −$19 (-16%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 67¢ 78¢ $83 $95 +$12 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $63 $72 +$9 (+14%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 62¢ $40 $69 +$29 (+72%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $77 $60 −$17 (-22%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 38¢ $17 $48 +$32 (+189%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $46 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $168 $17 −$151 (-90%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $41 $1 −$41 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $42 +$54 +130%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $56 +$709 +1262%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $85 +$202 +238%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,573 +$6,287 +176%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,240 +$3,396 +152%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $346 +$573 +166%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,390 +$1,649 +119%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $57 +$91 +158%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $52 −$51 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $81 −$78 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $3,968 +$94 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $68 −$5 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $126 +$18 +14%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $17 −$17 -99%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $251 +$150 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $192 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $118 +$93 +79%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 30 $254 +$27 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3,812 −$1,447 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $274 −$274 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $151 −$48 -32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $182 −$182 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $745 −$675 -91%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $182 +$40 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 23 $453 −$449 -99%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $884 −$882 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $803 +$309 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $6 +$6 +113%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $28 +$11 +40%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 21 $44 +$39 +89%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 21 $199 +$31 +16%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? May 21 $29 +$185 +632%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $170 +$85 +50%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $36 +$66 +181%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $48 +$11 +23%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $39 +$35 +90%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $411 −$330 -80%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $104 +$98 +94%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $172 −$123 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $247 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $152 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $55 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $105 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $168 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $264 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $26 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $43 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,973.20 · official $6,973.20 (match) · 2150 history records