Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd759…f227
sports · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$21
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 9 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 54¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $22 +$7 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 +$4 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $32 +$4 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$3
other 24% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $3 6m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $2 7m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7 11m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 33m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 48m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 50m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 51m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $0 3h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 3h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 38% -19.1%
≤30d 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 38% -19.1%
≤90d 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 38% -19.1%
all 16 -27.8% -34.7% 50% 38% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 38% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -40.9% 19% -26.9%
15% -46.6% 6% -33.9%
20% -51.9% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.89 · official $20.90 (match) · 93 history records