Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd758…e222
crypto · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$51 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$89 · open +$141
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$583
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)18 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day79.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $313 $406 +$93 (+30%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 23¢ 54¢ $30 $70 +$40 (+135%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 44¢ 69¢ $24 $37 +$14 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 39¢ 30¢ $47 $36 −$11 (-23%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 50¢ 74¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+48%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 63¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 28¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 72¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $75 −$36 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $74 −$26 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$4 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
ITF Women Decatur: Completed Match: Kylie Collins vs Malaika Rapolu Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$112
sports 12% −$11
crypto 11% −$19
finance 10% −$26
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $2 13m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $7 13m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $4 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $6 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $1 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $20 14m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $6 14m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 36¢ $36 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 68¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 72¢ $4 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 60¢ $0 23h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 18¢ $2 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 10¢ $1 26h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 77¢ $1 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 19¢ $1 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 19¢ $1 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 19¢ $1 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 28% -38.2%
≤30d 18 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 28% -38.2%
≤90d 18 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 28% -38.2%
all 18 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 28% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 28% -38.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 22% -44.1%
15% -49.2% 11% -49.5%
20% -54.2% 0% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.14 · official $582.67 (match) · 191 history records