Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
D7 0xd753…6053 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,622 (+45%) realized +$10,926 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,335
7 days+$8,552
14 days+$9,765
30 days+$10,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$8,653
other 20% +$2,025
crypto 2% +$120
world 1% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +35.7% +22.8% 35% 35% +32.9%
≤30d 96 +42.6% +29.0% 41% 41% +39.1%
≤90d 96 +42.6% +29.0% 41% 41% +39.1%
all 96 +42.6% +29.0% 41% 41% +39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.0% 41% +39.1%
10% +16.7% 39% +25.8%
15% +5.4% 39% +13.6%
20% -4.9% 38% +2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +75% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$149 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3,106
Realized+$10,926
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions13
Markets (closed)96 / 109
History coverage16d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 44¢ 44¢ $1,000 $996 −$4 (-0%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 36¢ 36¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 24¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $200 $108 −$92 (-46%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 39¢ 10¢ $200 $54 −$146 (-73%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $305 +$377 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $305 +$347 +114%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $306 −$306 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$57 +56%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $51 +$1,180 +2293%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $204 +$462 +226%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $205 +$523 +256%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $51 +$261 +510%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,309 +$1,318 +101%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$89 +88%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 +$192 +188%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $51 +$41 +80%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $51 −$33 -64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $113 −$113 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $510 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 24¢ $205 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $306 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $712 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 3h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $305 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Panama 58¢ $1 3h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $1 3h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $204 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $305 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $159 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 84¢ $728 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,627 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 30h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,106.27 · official $3,108.79 (match) · 227 history records