Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd752…7b4f sports 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,154 (-14%) realized −$20,079 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%480W / 366L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$728est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$743
14 days−$254
30 days−$1,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$15,956
other 19% −$4,625
world 0% −$87
politics 0% −$59
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 77% 77% +9.9%
≤30d 93 -39.8% -45.5% 40% 40% -20.9%
≤90d 611 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 56% -21.5%
all 846 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 55% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -22.3%
10% -23.0% 46% -29.8%
15% -30.5% 36% -36.6%
20% -37.3% 24% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$142 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$20,079
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses480 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$728
Open positions1
Markets (closed)846 / 847
History coverage318d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 846 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 59¢ 32¢ $160 $85 −$75 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$75 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $290 +$373 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $735 −$735 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$375 +75%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $24 +$8 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 +$27 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $497 +$349 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $498 +$238 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $51 +$19 +37%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $49 +$25 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 +$130 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $303 +$110 +36%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $771 +$122 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $51 +$32 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$61 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$54 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 −$24 -47%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $577 57m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $162 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $290 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $291 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $97 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $33 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL REKONIX 96¢ $32 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 71¢ $24 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $47 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $497 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $705 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $498 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $501 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $248 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $46 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $253 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $150 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $41 9d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 86¢ $69 9d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL HOTU 100¢ $74 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.42 · official $88.14 · 1880 history records