Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D7 0xd752…85d4 sports 701 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 251d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,181 (+3%) realized +$3,195 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%262W / 432L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$1,142est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$1,623
14 days−$2,641
30 days−$1,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$3,738
other 11% −$505
crypto 1% −$482
world 0% +$193
economics 0% −$94
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 45% +14.0%
≤30d 163 -16.5% -24.5% 35% 29% -14.6%
≤90d 420 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 33% -8.2%
all 694 -12.9% -21.2% 38% 35% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 35% -7.0%
10% -28.7% 33% -15.9%
15% -35.6% 32% -24.0%
20% -41.9% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$91 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$3,195
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses262 / 432
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,142
Open positions4
Markets (closed)694 / 701
History coverage252d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $165 $168 +$3 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $120 $102 −$18 (-15%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $33 +$17 +51%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $28 +$72 +262%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $62 −$61 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $116 +$84 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $230 +$170 +74%
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 20 $130 −$12 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $52 −$10 -19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $122 +$78 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $179 +$310 +174%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $42 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $463 −$78 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $185 +$215 +116%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,736 +$341 +12%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $254 +$75 +30%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $265 +$35 +13%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $12 +$8 +65%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $331 −$331 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 16 $327 +$20 +6%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 15 $15 +$21 +139%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $494 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,712 −$1,367 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $248 +$152 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $102 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 15h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Grigor Dimitrov 38¢ $19 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 45¢ $14 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 66¢ $33 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 27¢ $28 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 5¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 18¢ $18 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 38¢ $39 2d
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 38¢ $39 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win BUY 16¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 6¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 5¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $25 4d
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 23¢ $74 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $88 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 2¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 2¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $165 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.31 · official $420.30 (match) · 3496 history records