Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd750…3a12 crypto 13 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-10%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$3
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -34.9%
≤30d 11 -19.9% -27.5% 55% 45% -33.1%
≤90d 11 -19.9% -27.5% 55% 45% -33.1%
all 11 -19.9% -27.5% 55% 45% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 45% -33.1%
10% -34.5% 18% -39.5%
15% -40.8% 18% -45.3%
20% -46.6% 18% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 90¢ 89¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.98 · official $13.98 (match) · 36 history records