Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd74e…b7ca other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-7%) realized −$115 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$38
sports 3% −$3
crypto 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.0% -12.2% 23% 23% -19.1%
≤30d 43 -3.0% -12.2% 23% 23% -19.1%
≤90d 43 -3.0% -12.2% 23% 23% -19.1%
all 43 -3.0% -12.2% 23% 23% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 23% -19.1%
10% -20.6% 21% -26.8%
15% -28.3% 21% -33.9%
20% -35.3% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$20 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $28 $46 +$18 (+66%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $50 −$27 -55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $52 +$38 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $19 −$17 -92%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $12 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $44 +$116 +261%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 +$104 +507%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $29 +$71 +247%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $12 −$7 -58%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -86%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$3 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$92 +447%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +37%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +47%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$92 +1110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 87¢ $78 25h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $52 27h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 27h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $44 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.15 · official $152.34 (match) · 104 history records