Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D7 0xd747…ead8 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+2%) realized −$41 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days−$204
14 days−$91
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$562
other 28% −$154
crypto 3% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -32.0% -38.5% 35% 35% -22.3%
≤30d 61 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 41% -14.9%
≤90d 90 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 46% -4.1%
all 129 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 45% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -7.6%
10% -19.9% 43% -16.5%
15% -27.7% 42% -24.5%
20% -34.7% 40% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$1,588
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 70
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions18
Markets (closed)129 / 149
History coverage657d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $200 $326 +$126 (+63%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $263 $264 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 56¢ 100¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $50 $125 +$75 (+150%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 38¢ 56¢ $57 $83 +$26 (+46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $38 $64 +$26 (+70%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$74 +146%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 +$14 +64%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$103 +101%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $59 +$41 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$13 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $19 −$4 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$57 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 +$9 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 +$9 +156%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 +$19 +61%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$44 +146%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$12 +70%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $101 +$56 +56%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$39 +344%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $51 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 4h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $21 5h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $51 8h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 40¢ $20 8h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 8h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $102 8h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 22h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $51 24h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 69¢ $30 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $9 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 37¢ $10 31h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 45h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $67 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,588.21 · official $1,588.22 (match) · 362 history records