Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D7 0xd741…0b20 sports 204 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+1%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%109W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$124
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$13
politics 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +12.1% +1.4% 66% 52% -7.5%
≤30d 82 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 46% -9.3%
≤90d 204 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 46% -9.0%
all 204 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 46% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 46% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 36% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 29% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 23% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses109 / 95
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage65d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$4 -27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$32 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 −$22 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 +$24 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$20 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$6 -11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $175 −$172 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$31 +101%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +143%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$32 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$9 -46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $129 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$30 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $87 +$12 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$17 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$33 +92%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $167 −$59 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$13 -44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $28 +$5 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$6 -28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $80 +$35 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$8 -39%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $71 −$8 -11%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $301 −$6 -2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 −$28 -91%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 +$12 +30%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $214 +$102 +48%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$33 +109%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $137 +$14 +10%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$13 -64%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $50 +$18 +37%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $31 +$20 +67%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$43 +140%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $20 −$6 -31%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$5 -27%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$15 -75%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 56¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 43¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 29¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $14 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 92¢ $84 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 56¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 94¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 63¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 32¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 53¢ $32 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 64¢ $124 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $51 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $30 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $61 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 566 history records