Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd741…d71c politics 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$11
other 23% −$4
economics 10% −$2
sports 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage668d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Louis Billon win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Nov 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Brock Bowers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nico Collins be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Base airdrop in 2024? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will François Baroin be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Martin O'Malley be the next DNC chair? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Xavier McKinney win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA? Dec 09 $0 $0 -7%
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 19h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 44d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 45d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 48d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 72d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 73d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 78d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 79d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 89d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 90d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $51 96d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $51 97d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $51 102d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $51 102d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 104d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 105d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $51 115d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $51 116d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $51 116d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $51 116d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $51 116d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $52 117d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 119d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records