Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D7 0xd73a…0f4e sports 830 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,572 (-3%) realized −$3,478 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%452W / 370L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$1,394est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$574
14 days+$1,763
30 days+$1,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,898
other 3% −$236
world 0% −$235
crypto 0% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -1.7% -11.1% 58% 56% -5.3%
≤30d 316 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 57% -4.7%
≤90d 822 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 54% -12.9%
all 822 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 54% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 54% -12.9%
10% -21.6% 53% -21.2%
15% -29.2% 49% -28.8%
20% -36.1% 38% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$121 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$3,478
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses452 / 370
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,394
Open positions7
Markets (closed)822 / 830
History coverage87d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 73¢ 74¢ $219 $224 +$4 (+2%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 54¢ 55¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $79 $79 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 49¢ 100¢ $37 $75 +$38 (+104%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 68¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 49¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 66¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 263 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $100 +$29 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $96 +$61 +63%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $93 +$107 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -97%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $45 −$44 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $492 +$251 +51%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 +$19 +76%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $86 −$85 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $173 +$88 +51%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $113 +$9 +8%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $109 −$108 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $173 −$7 -4%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $119 −$118 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $89 −$88 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $90 −$88 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 18 $127 +$33 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$39 +77%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $62 +$38 +62%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $111 +$41 +37%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $59 +$41 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $90 −$89 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $87 +$63 +73%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $78 +$62 +79%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $88 −$86 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$59 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $82 +$48 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $113 −$7 -6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 +$116 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $121 +$79 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $95 −$93 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $89 +$51 +57%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $71 +$129 +180%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $82 +$48 +59%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $111 +$89 +79%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $83 −$82 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $75 +$65 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $117 +$2 +2%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 +$48 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $95 +$43 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $82 +$68 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $40 1m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 81¢ $129 4m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $221 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $40 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $99 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 59¢ $45 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 60¢ $58 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $45 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 71¢ $106 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $0 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $30 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 43¢ $5 5h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 50¢ $60 5h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $71 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $7 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $16 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $16 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $71 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $13 5h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $15 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $80 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 11h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $100 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $80 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $18 12h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 46¢ $93 12h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 54¢ $45 12h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 53¢ $41 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $742 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $376 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.08 · official $504.08 (match) · 1920 history records