Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd735…549d other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%92W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$15
crypto 21% +$1
economics 8% $0
politics 5% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 94 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses92 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage476d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $52 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 14? Apr 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 12 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Mar 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 Feb 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 20 Jan 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 31 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 20 $49 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 5? Dec 17 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 17 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 1? Dec 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 05 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on November 22? Dec 01 $1 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 2 Dec 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 01 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $55 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $55 14d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 20d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 29d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 31d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 32d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 32d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 47d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 49d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 63d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 65d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 74d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 79d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 80d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 80d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 80d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 97d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 102d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 105d
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 123d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 135d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 147d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 147d
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.97 · official $54.97 (match) · 188 history records