Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd733…4e14 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-6%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 41% -17.3%
≤90d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 41% -17.3%
all 32 +0.6% -9.0% 75% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 41% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 19% -25.2%
15% -25.6% 9% -32.4%
20% -32.9% 9% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$37 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $81 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $71 +$20 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $83 −$68 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $223 −$98 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $99 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $110 −$60 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $146 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$22 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records