Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd731…74e8 crypto 227 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$175 (-10%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%116W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$259
14 days−$240
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$242
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +51.2% +36.8% 49% 49% -25.2%
≤30d 227 +42.8% +29.2% 51% 51% -22.5%
≤90d 227 +42.8% +29.2% 51% 51% -22.5%
all 227 +42.8% +29.2% 51% 51% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.2% 51% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here +16.8% 51% -29.9%
15% +5.5% 51% -36.7%
20% -4.8% 51% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses116 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 480 history records