Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd72f…f9ed other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
sports 16% −$4
politics 15% −$4
crypto 6% −$1
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 101 -2.5% -11.8% 14% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 87
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage122d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $388 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $320 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $378 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $424 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $442 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $458 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $406 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 03 $368 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $397 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $330 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $188 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 31 $207 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 31 $166 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $424 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $171 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $401 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $410 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 43h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $192 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $193 31d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $158 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $158 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 55d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $163 64d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $163 65d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 65d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 66d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $204 66d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $204 66d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $209 66d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $209 66d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $183 66d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $183 67d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $171 67d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $171 67d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $157 67d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $157 68d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 68d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 68d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 69d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 69d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 69d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.91 · official $79.91 (match) · 302 history records