Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd72e…15aa crypto 1794 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate85%1525W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$227
14 days−$156
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$63
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 449 -32.6% -39.0% 44% 44% -47.6%
≤30d 1801 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 28% -11.8%
≤90d 1801 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 28% -11.8%
all 1801 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 28% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 28% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 20% -20.3%
15% -27.5% 15% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1525 / 276
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1801 / 1794
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 56¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.69 (match) · 3500 history records