Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd72c…8002
weather · 94 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 3? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 95¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on April 26? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M May 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 16? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 15? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 15? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 13? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on May 3? May 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 03 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$3
world 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 95¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +0.3% -9.3% 10% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 92 -26.9% -33.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 92 -26.9% -33.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -40.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -46.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -51.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.33 · official $68.33 (match) · 309 history records