Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd728…057f sports 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%29W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$40
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$23
other 28% −$23
politics 25% −$16
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$6
world 3% −$7
tech 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 71 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 73 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
all 354 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses29 / 325
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)354 / 355
History coverage651d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 97¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $206 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $251 −$2 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $204 −$3 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $120 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $42 −$2 -5%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $110 −$13 -12%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $148 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $108 −$2 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $113 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $46 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 30m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $41 9h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 9h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $41 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 23h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 31h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 31h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $38 32h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $39 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $50 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $50 45h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 46h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 91¢ $49 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $49 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.28 · official $46.28 (match) · 1338 history records