Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd727…3ed5 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-11%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%33W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$20
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$28
other 18% −$13
sports 9% −$19
weather 3% −$18
world 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% +15.7%
≤30d 66 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 36% -22.6%
≤90d 66 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 36% -22.6%
all 66 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 36% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 36% -22.6%
10% -37.2% 24% -30.0%
15% -43.3% 17% -36.8%
20% -48.8% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses33 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$16 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $51 −$39 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$4 +18%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$3 +13%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $23 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $3 +$1 +37%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +38%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 27 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $9 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $12 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 19d
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $2 19d
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson SELL Elvina Kalieva 100¢ $3 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $14 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.78 · official $46.78 (match) · 133 history records