Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D7 0xd727…ecce sports 1147 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,077 (+10%) realized +$15,136 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%504W / 611L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$2,000est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,027
economics 2% +$5
tech 1% +$52
other 1% −$126
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +3.5% -6.4% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤30d 403 +2.4% -7.4% 46% 45% -5.9%
≤90d 1115 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 43% -10.1%
all 1115 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 43% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 42% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 41% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$97 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$3,329
Realized+$15,136
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses504 / 611
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$2,000
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1115 / 1147
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $531 $347 −$183 (-35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $164 $234 +$70 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 21¢ $81 $208 +$128 (+157%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 57¢ $175 $201 +$26 (+15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 42¢ $132 $124 −$8 (-6%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 50¢ 60¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $166 $112 −$54 (-33%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 56¢ $90 $111 +$21 (+23%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 52¢ $86 $105 +$19 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $105 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 51¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics Athletics 49¢ 50¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 50¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets 46¢ 46¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Detroit Tigers 43¢ 44¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Minnesota Twins 44¢ 44¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 45¢ 44¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 44¢ 44¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres 42¢ 42¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 42¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox Washington Nationals 39¢ 38¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 38¢ $96 $77 −$19 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $87 +$113 +129%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $89 +$111 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $87 +$113 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $83 +$117 +140%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $102 +$98 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $75 +$125 +165%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $99 −$98 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $93 −$92 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $73 −$72 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $95 −$94 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $93 −$92 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $77 −$76 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $69 −$68 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $89 +$111 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $99 +$101 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $71 +$129 +180%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $99 +$101 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $88 −$88 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $93 −$92 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $81 −$80 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 26 $59 −$58 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $99 −$98 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 26 $91 −$90 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $97 −$96 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 26 $179 −$179 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $95 −$95 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $102 +$98 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $83 +$117 +140%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $85 +$115 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $99 +$101 +101%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $91 +$109 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $89 +$111 +124%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $93 +$107 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $89 +$111 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $97 +$103 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $88 19m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Los Angeles Angels 33¢ $66 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $99 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $89 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $85 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $85 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $79 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $87 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Mets 46¢ $93 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees BUY Detroit Tigers 43¢ $87 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $102 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $91 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 49¢ $99 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $93 44h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $73 44h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $89 44h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $87 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $87 44h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $83 44h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $10 44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $9 44h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $95 44h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $93 44h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $102 44h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $75 44h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $77 44h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 34¢ $69 44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $6 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $4 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,329.24 · official $3,329.24 (match) · 3500 history records