Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd723…2f33 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$5
world 38% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 30 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 7% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 7% -10.6%
10% -22.6% 3% -19.1%
15% -30.0% 3% -27.0%
20% -36.9% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $42 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $22 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $24 −$13 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 01 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $2 $0 +19%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $24 $0 +1%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -84%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $28 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $37 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 19h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $41 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $33 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $33 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $42 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 103 history records