Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D7 0xd722…0564 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,516 (-10%) realized −$2,516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 72L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$989
7 days+$1,362
14 days−$1,482
30 days−$1,581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$865
other 14% −$2,338
crypto 11% −$606
finance 9% −$569
world 2% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +37.8% +24.7% 40% 40% +2.2%
≤30d 77 +22.4% +10.7% 36% 36% -16.9%
≤90d 77 +22.4% +10.7% 36% 36% -16.9%
all 110 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 34% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 34% -18.2%
10% -15.1% 32% -26.0%
15% -23.3% 32% -33.2%
20% -30.8% 29% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$180 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage115d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$116 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 −$143 -70%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $305 +$320 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$91 +178%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $203 +$222 +109%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $102 +$201 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$251 +83%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $606 +$264 +44%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 +$303 +982%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 +$426 +140%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$374 +365%
Spread: Japan (-5.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $509 −$501 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $911 +$589 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 +$199 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 +$303 +982%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $157 −$153 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $406 −$400 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$175 +172%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$533 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $82 +$389 +474%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 +$386 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $203 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $506 5h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $102 12h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $203 12h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $102 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $142 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $102 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $204 28h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 38h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $51 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $102 38h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $305 38h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 9¢ $5 38h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $51 38h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $102 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $304 41h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 41h
Spread: Japan (-5.5) BUY Japan 3¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 5¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 9¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records