Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd721…57a7
weather · 451 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$112 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses115 / 332
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)447 / 451
History coverage62d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 447 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$9
14 days−$254
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$114 +1221%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +299%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$10 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$28 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$12 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$43 +790%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$13 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 +$86 +9837%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $28 +$23 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$92
sports 0% −$14
other 0% −$5
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +8.1% -2.2% 20% 18% -12.3%
≤30d 170 +6.2% -3.9% 20% 18% -15.7%
≤90d 447 +10.1% -0.4% 26% 23% -15.6%
all 447 +10.1% -0.4% 26% 23% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 23% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 21% -23.7%
15% -18.7% 19% -31.1%
20% -26.6% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.08 · official $17.53 · 3500 history records