Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd720…5aaf crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-7%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$7
other 13% +$2
sports 12% −$8
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -39.4% -45.2% 33% 22% -17.3%
≤30d 41 -27.5% -34.4% 34% 24% -20.5%
≤90d 41 -27.5% -34.4% 34% 24% -20.5%
all 41 -27.5% -34.4% 34% 24% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 24% -20.5%
10% -40.7% 22% -28.1%
15% -46.4% 17% -35.1%
20% -51.7% 12% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$4 +291%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $4 −$3 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 +$2 +236%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 141 history records