Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd71e…f555
world · 43 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage248d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $41 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $3 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $19 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $19 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 21 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 21 $2 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $1 $0 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $41 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Oct 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$1
other 15% $0
politics 14% −$3
sports 13% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 8% −$1
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 5m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $28 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $8 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $34 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $32 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $8 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $34 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 4d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 132d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 176d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 25¢ $16 198d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 30¢ $19 202d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 21% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.79 · official $24.79 (match) · 159 history records