Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D7 0xd71a…67f5 sports 372 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,565 (+1%) realized +$1,255 · open +$310
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%234W / 274L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$673per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$2,434est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,641
other 13% +$3,129
world 4% +$585
politics 2% −$61
crypto 0% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -81.6% -83.3% 6% 6% -80.5%
≤30d 179 -65.0% -68.4% 13% 12% -50.7%
≤90d 508 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 32% -15.4%
all 508 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 32% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 32% -15.4%
10% -39.6% 22% -23.5%
15% ← realistic here -45.4% 15% -30.9%
20% -50.8% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$250 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,779
Realized+$1,255
Unrealized+$310
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses234 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,434
Open positions11
Markets (closed)508 / 372
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$673
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $1,093 $1,452 +$359 (+33%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $91 $100 +$8 (+9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 53¢ $98 $79 −$18 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $33 $28 −$6 (-17%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+71%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Regatas vs. Gimnasia Jun 24 $551 −$551 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 24 $355 −$408 -115%
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the top global Netflix show this week? (Feb Jun 24 $11 −$13 -115%
Valorant: Fnatic vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $114 −$121 -106%
Will Trump say "Democrat" during College Football Roundtable? Jun 24 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Damm vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $146 −$146 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$30 -182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$27 -152%
Faria vs. Baez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jun 24 $16 −$10 -62%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -150%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Rio Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Jakub Mensik Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Chile Open: Nicolas Jarry vs Dino Prizmic Jun 24 $110 −$107 -97%
Will Trump say "Cristiano" or "Ronaldo" during Inter Miami events on T Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Jun 24 $37 −$57 -155%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5) Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (February Jun 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Open Sud de France: Hubert Hurkacz vs Martin Damm Jun 24 $465 −$509 -110%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12? Jun 24 $47 −$59 -126%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Jun 24 $5 −$19 -344%
Will Trump say "Karoline Leavitt" during Women's History Month event? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Dominican Rep. Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $489 −$491 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump say "Electricity" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Mexican Open: Rafael Jodar vs Cameron Norrie Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Jun 24 $134 −$167 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Trump say "Messi" 3+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -101%
Magic vs. Heat Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3) Jun 24 $246 −$270 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $204 −$207 -102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $1,003 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $0 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $198 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $16 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $272 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 76¢ $315 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 71¢ $276 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- BUY 76¢ $276 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 BUY 55¢ $539 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 63¢ $449 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $991 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $728 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,333 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $101 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $640 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $44 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $100 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $40 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,778.61 · official $1,778.61 (match) · 3500 history records