Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D7 0xd718…e1c6 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
finance 10% $0
other 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 33% -3.1%
≤30d 8 +3.9% -6.0% 38% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +3.4% -6.4% 33% 11% -8.4%
all 18 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 6% -17.5%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage464d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $12 +$4 +33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 07 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $13 $0 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $31 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 16h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $7 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $27 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $27 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $27 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $29 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $29 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 31d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 335d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $11 362d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 397d
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 427d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? SELL Yes $0 441d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? SELL Yes $1 441d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? SELL Yes $0 441d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? SELL Yes $1 441d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $11 442d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? BUY Yes $0 442d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records