Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd714…eaae crypto 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,606 (-9%) realized −$6,606 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate74%221W / 77L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$572
7 days−$2,029
14 days−$1,273
30 days−$2,858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$5,027
sports 35% −$988
other 6% −$1,080
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.9% -17.5% 59% 53% -30.8%
≤30d 25 -10.9% -19.4% 56% 52% -29.0%
≤90d 47 -1.9% -11.3% 74% 55% -19.3%
all 298 -3.6% -12.8% 74% 33% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 33% -18.5%
10% -21.1% 10% -26.3%
15% -28.7% 2% -33.4%
20% -35.7% 1% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$186 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,606
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses221 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions0
Markets (closed)298 / 298
History coverage142d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 298 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$16 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $508 +$209 +41%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$36 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $365 +$174 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $503 +$60 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$68 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,126 −$1,126 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $503 −$143 -28%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $403 +$104 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $201 +$60 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $201 +$46 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,612 +$75 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $965 −$297 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,535 +$756 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $150 +$46 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $101 +$65 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $509 −$509 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1,006 −$811 -81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $512 −$512 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $810 +$135 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $509 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $808 +$126 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $511 +$38 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $807 +$112 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1,020 +$183 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $808 +$132 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $515 +$60 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $804 +$55 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $807 +$106 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 26? Apr 26 $2,530 +$114 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $675 +$130 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $750 +$52 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $450 +$46 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 11? Apr 11 $450 +$65 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 5? Apr 07 $300 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11AM ET Apr 06 $61 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5? Apr 05 $500 +$24 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 3? Apr 05 $300 +$76 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Apr 04 $500 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Mar 29 $500 +$113 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20? Mar 24 $500 +$128 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4PM ET Mar 22 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8PM ET Mar 22 $307 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7AM ET Mar 22 $51 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $488 14m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $717 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $139 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $508 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $365 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $503 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $271 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $309 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 59¢ $360 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $503 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $201 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $201 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 75¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 74¢ $1,160 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $403 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $504 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $504 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $668 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $965 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 746 history records