Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd70d…7a0a world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
other 16% −$1
sports 11% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
politics 4% $0
weather 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -2.8% -12.1% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 12 -2.8% -12.1% 8% 0% -10.3%
all 36 -5.8% -14.7% 44% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage475d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $49 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -69%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $1 $0 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $44 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $43 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $38 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $39.56 (match) · 128 history records