Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd70b…b121 finance 72 markets active 1d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$28 (-5%) realized +$40 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%42W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 87% −$74
sports 12% +$22
crypto 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +48.3% +34.2% 100% 100% +21.4%
≤30d 10 +10.7% +0.1% 50% 50% -19.6%
≤90d 62 +12.5% +1.8% 66% 63% -3.9%
all 63 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 63% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 63% -3.3%
10% -6.7% 48% -12.5%
15% -15.7% 35% -21.0%
20% -24.0% 27% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses42 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage92d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-92%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$23 (-96%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-89%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $14 −$14 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 20 $5 −$1 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 19 $15 +$3 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 12 $4 +$2 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $1 $0 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $2 $0 +18%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 08 $1 +$1 +69%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 07 $1 +$1 +83%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $8 +$1 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $5 +$9 +186%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Apr 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 12 $16 +$3 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $3 $0 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 12 $2 $0 +20%
Partizan vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 09 $11 −$3 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -11%
BC Dubai vs. Monaco Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Olympiacos B.C. Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Valencia vs. Olimpia Milano Apr 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Virtus Bologna vs. FC Bayern Munchen Apr 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Dubai Apr 07 $2 $0 +22%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Barcelona vs. Panathinaikos Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Paris Basketball Apr 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Saski Baskonia vs. Real Madrid Apr 03 $1 +$1 +74%
Virtus Bologna vs. Valencia Apr 03 $1 $0 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Apr 02 $9 −$1 -11%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 02 $3 +$2 +65%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan Apr 02 $1 +$2 +198%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $1 $0 +36%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Fenerbahce Apr 01 $1 +$1 +120%
Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball Apr 01 $1 +$1 +111%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Mar 27 $5 +$7 +130%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 27 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 27 $45 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.35 · official $7.35 (match) · 408 history records