Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D7
0xd70b…dcb1
sports · 242 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3,237 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,445 · open +$2,208
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,651
Realized−$5,445
Unrealized+$2,208
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses104 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,301
Open positions11
Markets (closed)231 / 242
History coverage62d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$523
7 days+$1,149
14 days+$2,705
30 days+$1,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 14¢ 80¢ $504 $2,819 +$2,315 (+460%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $729 $729 +$0 (+0%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 55¢ 52¢ $706 $673 −$34 (-5%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 69¢ 68¢ $627 $613 −$14 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $587 $592 +$5 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $529 $524 −$5 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $506 $502 −$4 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 68¢ 68¢ $469 $466 −$3 (-1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 32¢ 32¢ $397 $403 +$6 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $302 $292 −$10 (-3%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $87 $38 −$49 (-57%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $448 $0 −$448 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 59¢ 0¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 52¢ 0¢ $730 $0 −$730 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Pistons 48¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) HANJIN BRION 44¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5) Monte 64¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 62¢ 0¢ $314 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 21¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 58¢ 0¢ $521 $0 −$521 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 45¢ 0¢ $286 $0 −$286 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $511 $0 −$511 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 23¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Spurs 51¢ 0¢ $737 $0 −$737 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $219 +$32 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $399 −$393 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $299 +$321 +107%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $144 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $363 −$360 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $578 −$573 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $694 +$574 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $302 −$299 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $207 +$302 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $220 +$164 +74%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $150 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $538 −$529 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $411 +$313 +76%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $645 +$534 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $228 −$73 -32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $428 −$210 -49%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs FENNEL (+1.5) Jun 10 $422 +$78 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $98 +$128 +130%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $438 +$189 +43%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 09 $359 +$146 +41%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $517 +$395 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $59 −$40 -67%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $505 +$296 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $316 −$311 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $438 +$344 +78%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $718 +$271 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $722 +$200 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $168 −$167 -99%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $116 −$114 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $141 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $742 +$266 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $527 −$521 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $733 +$905 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $404 −$400 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $315 +$585 +186%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $605 +$408 +67%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $705 +$516 +73%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $422 +$184 +44%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $374 +$281 +75%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $518 −$515 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $450 −$230 -51%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $622 −$614 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $46 −$46 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $506 +$571 +113%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $525 +$490 +93%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $107 +$660 +614%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $306 +$79 +26%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $202 −$201 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$3,558
other 3% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $474 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $163 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $5 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $237 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 51¢ $399 3h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $219 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $307 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $595 15h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 71¢ $144 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $146 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $363 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $578 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $150 25h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $8 29h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $686 29h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $633 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $535 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $149 35h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $302 35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 46¢ $188 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 41¢ $350 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $95 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $207 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $105 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 61¢ $141 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 56% -0.5%
≤30d 90 -1.5% -10.8% 51% 51% -6.1%
≤90d 231 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 44% -15.9%
all 231 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -15.9%
10% -28.7% 41% -24.0%
15% -35.6% 38% -31.3%
20% -41.9% 32% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,650.85 · official $7,654.21 (match) · 800 history records