Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd708…ac24 world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$11
other 20% −$5
sports 15% −$5
politics 13% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 67 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 74 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage531d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $27 +$1 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $108 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $22 −$5 -22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $36 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $148 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 7m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $21 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $27 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $27 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $26 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $31 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $15 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $1.25 (match) · 333 history records