Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd705…caf8 sports 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$187 (+6%) realized +$204 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%64W / 111L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$271
other 8% −$122
crypto 3% +$28
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -25.5% -32.6% 24% 22% -21.3%
≤30d 139 -42.9% -48.4% 21% 19% -36.1%
≤90d 158 -26.8% -33.8% 30% 29% -29.0%
all 175 -14.6% -22.7% 37% 35% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 35% -4.6%
10% -30.1% 31% -13.7%
15% -36.9% 26% -22.0%
20% -43.1% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses64 / 111
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)175 / 185
History coverage251d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 +$8 +165%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 −$9 -84%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$53 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: GOAL vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $10 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $54 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 43¢ $7 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 8h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $10 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 21h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $24 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $2 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $10 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $26 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.41 · official $78.41 (match) · 348 history records