Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd704…2639 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$236 (-9%) realized −$77 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$549
other 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.8% -42.8% 31% 25% -39.0%
≤30d 16 -36.8% -42.8% 31% 25% -39.0%
≤90d 49 -29.7% -36.4% 37% 31% -27.0%
all 49 -29.7% -36.4% 37% 31% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 31% -27.0%
10% -42.5% 20% -34.0%
15% -48.0% 20% -40.4%
20% -53.1% 14% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage32d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$26 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$9 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 17 $68 −$25 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 17 $26 +$9 +35%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$1 +13%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 17 $35 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 17 $47 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 17 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 17 $146 −$80 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $72 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 17 $21 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 17 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $65 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $129 −$75 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 15 $143 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $150 +$82 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $243 +$144 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $154 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 15 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $78 +$74 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $14 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $29 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 319 history records