Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D7 0xd703…9b8b sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,289 (-19%) realized −$3,111 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$371
7 days−$332
14 days−$3,054
30 days−$3,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,419
other 5% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 35% -15.1%
≤30d 62 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 32% -28.5%
≤90d 62 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 32% -28.5%
all 62 -25.5% -32.6% 34% 32% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 32% -28.5%
10% -39.1% 32% -35.3%
15% -45.0% 32% -41.6%
20% -50.4% 27% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$192 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized−$3,111
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage17d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 29¢ 30¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Morocco 12¢ 12¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ 82¢ $200 $267 +$67 (+34%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ 0¢ $238 $0 −$238 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $202 −$69 -34%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $178 +$78 +44%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $308 −$300 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $305 +$320 +105%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $285 −$14 -5%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$301 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $405 +$286 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $305 +$393 +129%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $263 +$277 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $565 −$218 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $343 −$175 -51%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $507 −$104 -21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $515 +$414 +80%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $274 −$270 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $181 −$178 -98%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs GOAL (+1.5) Jun 09 $202 +$111 +55%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $441 −$128 -29%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $207 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $308 −$174 -57%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Game Handicap: FXW7 (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $219 +$256 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $220 −$59 -27%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $200 +$150 +75%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $230 −$146 -64%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $254 +$246 +97%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $224 −$222 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $183 −$181 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $257 −$253 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $249 −$47 -19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $501 −$500 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $165 +$585 +354%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $212 −$85 -40%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $139 +$111 +79%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $175 −$173 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $406 −$400 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $406 −$373 -92%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $203 +$266 +131%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 03 $354 +$199 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $242 50m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $174 50m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 53¢ $223 50m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 40¢ $133 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $256 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 71¢ $54 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $5 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ $119 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 62¢ $202 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $202 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 16h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $205 18h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $306 19h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 12¢ $308 19h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner SELL Solary 50¢ $271 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 51¢ $155 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 51¢ $129 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 43¢ $306 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $540 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 48¢ $1 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 48¢ $12 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 48¢ $7 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 48¢ $244 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 26¢ $226 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 33¢ $139 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 40¢ $29 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $64 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $278 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.32 · official $845.74 · 170 history records