Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D7 0xd703…d3e2 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day32.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-13.1%	-21.4%	68%	53%	-17.8%
≤30d	19	-13.1%	-21.4%	68%	53%	-17.8%
≤90d	19	-13.1%	-21.4%	68%	53%	-17.8%
all	19	-13.1%	-21.4%	68%	53%	-17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover32.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-21.4%	53%	-17.8%
10% ← realistic here	-28.9%	21%	-25.6%
15%	-35.8%	5%	-32.8%
20%	-42.1%	0%	-39.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$5

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day32.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	72¢	46¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$3	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$4	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 16	$30	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 16	$20	−$9	-45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$7	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$2	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$2	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$3	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$10	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$10	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$10	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$10	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$10	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$20	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$10	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$10	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$10	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$10	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$10	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$10	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$10	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$10	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$10	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$10	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.46 · official $3.26 · 59 history records