Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6fe…69ad world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 52L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$24
other 28% +$6
sports 9% $0
politics 4% +$40
finance 3% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +63.9% +48.3% 35% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 40 +49.8% +35.5% 40% 5% -9.4%
all 87 +22.1% +10.5% 40% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -0.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -9.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -18.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage469d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $82 $85 +$3 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $132 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $270 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $141 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $127 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $127 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 +$3 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $142 −$16 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $276 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $141 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $16 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $348 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $483 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $322 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $145 −$5 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $256 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $98 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $150 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $183 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $229 −$69 -30%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $208 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $194 +$54 +28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $187 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $98 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $524 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $240 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $429 +$39 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,071 +$5 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $2,242 +$2 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,348 +$2 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,196 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $7 +$2 +37%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $82 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $40 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $92 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $132 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $132 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $128 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $141 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $141 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $127 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $107 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $140 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $140 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $49 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $78 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $127 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $45 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $45 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $140 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $142 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $120 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $129 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.30 · official $85.25 (match) · 301 history records