Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6fc…371e crypto 157 markets active 5d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-15%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$41
other 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 44% 33% -3.9%
≤30d 104 -19.3% -27.0% 43% 19% -23.0%
≤90d 157 -16.5% -24.4% 54% 20% -25.8%
all 157 -16.5% -24.4% 54% 20% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 20% -25.8%
10% -31.7% 17% -32.9%
15% -38.3% 11% -39.4%
20% -44.3% 8% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 27 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 27 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records