Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6fb…05f3 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$346 (+5%) realized +$345 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%41W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
economics 39% −$3
crypto 12% +$1
other 6% +$350
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 2% -9.1%
≤90d 42 +2.3% -7.5% 95% 2% -9.1%
all 45 +2.1% -7.6% 91% 4% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 4% -4.6%
10% -16.5% 4% -13.7%
15% -24.5% 4% -22.1%
20% -31.9% 4% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.33 per $1 lost it wins $51.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses41 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage131d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 26 $24 +$21 +90%
Will Solana reach $110 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 12 $328 +$328 +100%
Perth Wildcats vs. Cairns Taipans Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebane Feb 06 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,100 3d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,487 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,490 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.67 · official $45.67 (match) · 92 history records