Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6fa…6cfe world 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 66L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$36
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$55
politics 25% +$3
other 16% +$3
economics 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
sports 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.6% -7.2% 29% 14% -8.0%
≤30d 30 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 10% -8.3%
≤90d 68 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 9% -8.7%
all 127 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 6% -8.8%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 1% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)127 / 131
History coverage459d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $331 −$2 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $119 +$14 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $63 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $162 +$32 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $175 −$7 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $100 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $230 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $265 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $379 +$4 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $216 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $136 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $342 +$2 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $104 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $121 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $286 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $286 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $6 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $31 +$4 +14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $173 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $138 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $130 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $152 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $65 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $73 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $98 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $73 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $113 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $54 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $63 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.90 · official $138.75 · 596 history records