Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd6f9…aaa5 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$88 (+29%) realized +$69 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$113
14 days+$84
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$78
sports 26% +$44
crypto 20% −$1
world 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +64.1% +48.5% 41% 41% +44.5%
≤30d 31 +20.3% +8.9% 35% 35% +19.3%
≤90d 31 +20.3% +8.9% 35% 35% +19.3%
all 31 +20.3% +8.9% 35% 35% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 35% +19.3%
10% -1.6% 35% +7.9%
15% -11.1% 35% -2.6%
20% -19.8% 29% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage16d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+72%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$124 +1191%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +194%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +273%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $21 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.42 · official $59.42 (match) · 53 history records