Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6f7…720f other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 26% $0
politics 9% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 9% -9.5%
all 44 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage458d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $65 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $12 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $27 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $27 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records