Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd6f7…610a crypto 861 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,031 (-4%) realized −$1,021 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%428W / 529L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,440
sports 2% −$37
other 1% −$28
politics 0% −$85
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -62.4% -66.0% 15% 15% -71.4%
≤30d 407 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 36% -39.0%
≤90d 957 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 42% -28.0%
all 957 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 42% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 42% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 39% -34.9%
15% -32.4% 34% -41.2%
20% -39.0% 27% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,021
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses428 / 529
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)957 / 861
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 30¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $110 −$112 -102%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on March 29, 4AM ET? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$27 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11PM ET Jun 22 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7PM ET Jun 22 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during National Agriculture Day e Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$51 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$78 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$16 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1AM ET Jun 22 $72 −$60 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 27m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 28m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 41m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $14 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $38 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $7 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $22 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $14 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $66 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.87 · official $70.87 (match) · 3500 history records